Google's Web Vision

I just read an interesting article on how Google thinks downloadable App stores (like Apple's) are not the future of mobile development, and that eventually all mobile applications will be web-based once bandwith increases. It's pretty interesting, but not really unexpected coming from Google, whose future is really based on this playing out.

This is clearly how things are going to play out. The web is a developer's greatest friend in that it is "write once, run anywhere" code. There's enough standards in place that there's a good chance that no matter what computer you're on, as long as you are running a semi-modern browser, you'll be able to run the code. And if we can just get IE6 to die, then the chances improve even more.

I think Google misses the big picture, though (or are very aware but just don't want to say it). Apple's app store isn't a success (1.5 billion+ apps downloaded is a HUGE success) because of the apps themselves, but because of the delivery method. Apple is applying the same cunning strategy that propelled them to the top of the music delivery service category. It's all about DISTRIBUTION and user experience. One-click app delivery is what makes the App store and iTunes a success. I think Apple could easily switch (and is probably prepared to, given their plans to build huge new datacenters) their model to accommodate deliverable access to web-apps via mobile phones, and probably then to desktops later on down the line. Because they are pioneering the delivery method and they have built the distribution, developers will want to still be included in the app store because of the exposure it creates.

My feeling is that the future of the web will likely be tied to distribution more than everything else, kind of like how distributors for supermarkets control the flow of products, and if you want to be successful in food service you need to get the right distribution in place. Of course, one of the benefits to large-scale distribution to consumers is lower prices due to the economies of scale. Everyone likes that as well.

That's kind of why we really like the extension catalog built into our CMS of choice, TYPOlight. It's got all the feeling of an app store—one click downloads of all extensions, as well as the ability to hook into different app stores via SOAP. We're seeing a lot of similarities in this model to the App store and how it can be used to help developers as well as provide a great way for us to deliver updates and new modules to our own customers. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all plays out, but it should be interesting either way!